Sunday, April 08, 2007

Forecast, Week of April 9th

What's on the docket this week? A few reports of note - and one of the more interesting items on the calendar will be the Federal Reserve Board's "Meeting Minutes" from the March 21st meeting, due for release this Wednesday afternoon. Why so intriguing? Because unlike the carefully crafted Policy Statement released just following the actual Fed Meeting, the Meeting Minutes is like the Fed "unplugged"...where all the commentary and discussion between Fed members is unbridled and unleashed to the public. Not all members vote at each meeting - but they all have a voice. Was the decision to keep the Fed Funds Rate in a paused position unanimous? Or did non-voting Fed President Jeffrey "the Dissenter" Lacker raise his voice in favor of more hikes? We'll all find out later this week - and the comments could be market movers, so stay tuned.

The chart below shows that Bond pricing has been skidding lower of late, meaning home loan rates have worsened right along with them. And the next "floor of support" to catch them is lower still - indicating that Bond pricing and home loan rates will likely get a bit worse before they get better.

The market may see some added volatility early in the week, as last Friday's trading session was condensed into just a few hours of trading before a market close in observance of Good Friday. Stocks should improve off the strong Jobs Report, which could hurt bonds and home loan rates.

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