Thursday, May 24, 2007

Lender Market Watch

Last week, Steroid-pumped Stocks kicked sand in the face of the 97-pound weakling Bond market, and home loan rates worsened by about .125% across the board. What happened?

Here's the story - money invested out in the financial markets generally flows back and forth between Stocks and Bonds. This means that when Stocks are doing well, money is flowing out of Bonds as investors move their "safe" holdings into what they hope are winning positions in the Stock market. On the other hand, when the Stock market takes a turn for the worse, money flows right back out of Stocks and right back over into "safe haven" Bonds. This happens over and over, and is true on a large and small scale; from individual investors on up to massive institutional investors...the mindset is exactly the same.

As the Stock market has rocketed higher in recent days, investors want to get in on the action, and that money has to come from somewhere...and that's right, it's coming from Bonds. And when money is pulled out of Bonds, it means that Bond prices worsen, and home loan rates move higher like they did last week.

What should have helped Bonds was a friendly Consumer Price Index report, showing that inflation appears to be moderating. Inflation is the arch-enemy of Bonds, which deliver an investor a fixed return - the value of which is eroded by inflation. But just like the 97-pound weaklings wimpy friend at the beach, the good news on inflation wasn't strong enough to help Bonds or home loan rates regain their legs.

SPEAKING OF THE BEACH...EVER SEE THOSE DUDES GOING AROUND WITH METAL DETECTORS, AND WONDER JUST WHAT THEY'RE UP TO? MIGHT BE SEEKING OLD WAR RELICS, OR PERHAPS A VALUABLE COIN - BUT YOU WON'T NEED A MACHINE TO FIND A NEW COIN THAT'S WORTH ROUGHLY 50 TIMES IT'S FACE VALUE DUE TO A MINT ERROR. IT COULD BE IN YOUR POCKET RIGHT NOW, SO DON'T MISS THIS WEEK'S MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW.

Lender Forecast, May 20-26

What's in store for the week ahead? First, a short - but relevant - history lesson. World War I was sometimes called the "War of the Trenches", because of the unique way that ground battles were fought. A long trench was dug by each opposing force, and they would fight between the two trenches, using the trench itself for cover as needed. Whichever side won that particular battle would advance forward, taking over their opponent's trench and proceeding to fight forward. Now - look at the chart below, and imagine you are in a hot air balloon, looking down over a WWI battlefield. C'mon, use your imagination.

You can see that the 200-day Moving Average has been a very tough "trench" held firmly by the Bond Bulls, who have kept Bond prices above this level for the past nine months running and subsequently, kept home loan rates low. But just this week, the Bond Bears have finally penetrated and defeated this tough trench. And as Bond prices have fallen, home loan rates have risen. And in the past, this particular trench - the 200-day Moving Average - has been a real tough one to beat. In fact, last time Bond prices fell below this level, it took an eighteen month battle to win the trench back, and help home loan rates improve!

This means that the overall trend for home loan rates doesn't look too positive in the coming months, unless some very Bond-friendly news makes its way to the front lines. And with a thin economic calendar in the week ahead - don't expect any significant improvements in the near term.

HAIL TO THE CHEF!

Oops...meant to say "Chief!" Errors are common, but generally not for the US Mint. Because they rarely make a mistake, their recent mishap is causing the value of some newly minted - yet flawed - coins to skyrocket.

The United States is honoring our nations Presidents by issuing Dollar coins, which feature their images. And as a side bonus, the US also saves money, because coins stay in circulation longer than paper currency - yet it remains to be seen if we will adapt to clunky coins instead of paper in our pockets. The new coins will feature four different Presidents each year, appearing in the order in which they served, beginning in 2007 with Washington, Adams, Jefferson, and Madison.

The Dollar coins will be unique in design with each having the name and likeness of the President, the term of office, and a number indicating the order in which the President served. Additionally, the standard inscriptions traditionally found on the face of coins have been moved to the edge. The inscriptions "E Pluribus Unum (out of many, one)", "In God We Trust", the year of minting, and the mint mark have all been moved to the edge of the coin.

And with any big change to design...there is always room for error. Sure enough, some of these new coins will quickly come off the market, because the US Mint made a mistake. The value of these rare coins is now up 5000%, and still climbing.

Here's what happened.

The U. S. Mint placed a significant, but undisclosed, amount of new dollar coins into circulation without the inscriptions around the edge. These $1 coins are now worth $50 a piece to collectors! That's right, fifty times the actual face value. Obviously, something went wrong during the six-step process to allow this to happen.

Here's the procedure:

Blanking - The U.S. Mint buys strips of metal rolled in a coil that are about 13 inches wide and 1,500 feet long. The coil is fed through a blanking press which punches out round disks called blanks.

Annealing, Washing and Drying - The blanks are then heated in an annealing furnace to soften them and then run through a washer and dryer.

Upsetting - The blanks go through an upsetting mill to raise the edges of the coins.

Striking - Coins go to the coining press and they are stamped with the designs and inscriptions.

Inspecting - Press operators use magnifying glasses to spot-check struck coins.

Counting and Bagging - Coins are dropped into bags, sealed shut, and held in a vault until shipped to the Federal Reserve.

Nabbing one of these could turn a tidy profit for you with an even greater price tag in the future. But be careful - The US Mint has issued a warning on their website that scam artists are actually grinding the rims of Presidential $1 Coins to remove the inscriptions, then marketing them as US Mint "error coins".

In Philadelphia or Denver, you can actually take a fascinating tour of a US Mint location. To learn more - or take a virtual tour - click here: Tour the US Mint

Wednesday, May 09, 2007

Two Major "Did You Knows" about Short Sales.

Important Read!!!

1) Did you know….

That if the seller has an FHA loan , HUD is not allowing lenders to negotiate a short sale and pay closing cost for the buyer. If the lender allows closing cost paid for the buyer, FHA will not cover that part of the cost in the insurability/ reimbursement of the loan back to the lender.

2) Did you know…

The IRS can tax the amount forgiven on a short sale? Read below. For homeowners who are seriously delinquent on their mortgages and hoping for relief, the Internal Revenue Service has bad news: If your lender agrees to modify your loan and forgive any of your debt, you could owe federal income tax on the amount forgiven.

Think of it as the tax code's "kick 'em while they're down" rule. When personal debts are canceled by a creditor, the amount forgiven is treated as ordinary income under the Internal Revenue Code, except in some situations such as insolvency. Worse yet, the lender is required by law to report the canceled amount to the IRS. Ouch!

This is especially bad news for the growing numbers of credit-impaired subprime borrowers who find themselves "upside down" in the current real estate market: They owe more on their mortgage than the value of their house, thanks to noxious combinations of zero down payments, declining property values and hefty payment increases they can't afford.

Diane Thompson, a lawyer with the Land of Lincoln Legal Assistance Foundation in East St. Louis, Ill., tells of one client who learned about the tax code's Catch-22 the hard way. After the homeowner negotiated a loan modification agreement with her lender, she assumed that she was done with the matter. But a year later, the IRS came after her, demanding a large tax payment on the amount the lender forgave -- a tax bill that was equal to her annual income. As required, her lender had dutifully submitted a Form 1099-C to the IRS, alerting the agency to the woman's extra "income" from the loan modification.

The homeowner never received that income in any tangible way; she couldn't deposit it in her bank account. But under federal law, the IRS had every right to come after her for unpaid taxes.
Similar situations are likely to pop up around the country in the coming year as lenders bend over backward to modify thousands of troubled loans to prevent foreclosure. Proposed legislation on Capitol Hill could soften some of the impact on financially stressed homeowners, however. The Mortgage Cancellation Tax Relief Act of 2007 (H.R. 1876) would amend the tax code to exclude debt forgiveness on principal home mortgages from treatment as income.

Introduced in mid-April by Reps. Robert E. Andrews (D-N.J.) and Ron Lewis (R-Ky.), the bill would allow lenders to restructure delinquent mortgages without worrying about income-tax hand grenades hitting their borrowers the next year. The legislation could assist many other homeowners in financial trouble who negotiate pre-foreclosure "short sales" or deeds in lieu of foreclosure, or those whose foreclosure proceeds are insufficient to pay off their mortgage debt.

Short sales are increasingly commonplace. Say you are seriously behind on your mortgage payments, and a loan modification or rate reduction won't solve the problem because you have lost your job. As an alternative to foreclosure, your lender might suggest a quick sale of the house, often to an investor who will buy it as-is at a discounted price. If the short sale proceeds are $10,000 less than the outstanding mortgage balance and your lender agrees to forgive that amount, the Andrews-Lewis bill would allow you to obtain that relief tax-free.

Under current law, your lender would be required to report the $10,000 in phantom income to the IRS. Ditto if you went to foreclosure and the sale proceeds yielded $10,000 -- or $50,000 -- less than the outstanding debt owed to the lender.

Proponents of the debt-relief bill argue that short sales, mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures are painful situations for most homeowners and that there's no public policy purpose served by smacking them with tax penalties that make things even worse. In the case of below-market short sales, for example, most homeowners have already suffered sizable capital losses that are not tax-deductible. They've lost thousands of dollars in equity.

Why pile on?
The outlook for the bill: It's currently before the House Ways and Means Committee, Congress's primary tax legislation body. Because most of the majority-Democratic housing and banking committee leaders have called on banks and mortgage companies to work out solutions to keep troubled homeowners out of foreclosure, a bipartisan tax fairness bill like this one should have a reasonable chance of passage. Stay tuned…..

Lending Forecast, Week of May 7th

This week's economic calendar is front and back-end loaded with potentially high impact reports. Right out of the gates, Monday brings the Personal Income and Spending report with the imbedded Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Index, the Federal Reserve's most favored gauge of inflation. Expectations are for Core Inflation to be reported at 2.2%, inching closer to the Fed's target of 2% or lower. Not to be outdone, Friday is launch-day for the potentially explosive monthly Jobs Report with the latest data on new job formation, hourly earnings, and the unemployment rate. Estimates for new job creations are presently around 100,000.

If either of these reports are out of line - showing more inflation than expected or markedly more jobs than expected - this could cause Bond prices and home loan rates to suffer. And on the flip side - if the reports show low inflation or fewer job creations than anticipated, this could help Bond prices and home loan rates improve.

Mortgage Bonds are now trading within a few whiskers of a very important technical floor of support at the 200-day Moving Average. Why is this floor so important? The chart below shows that Bonds have traded above this floor for eight months - and the last time Bonds traded beneath this level, the 200-day MA became a tough overhead ceiling of resistance, putting a lid on Bond prices or home loan rates improving for one and half years. So...if the news of this week forces the Bond beneath this 200-day MA floor of support, it may mean higher home loan rates for a while.

Lender's Corner

"THE ONE FUNCTION THAT TV NEWS PERFORMS VERY WELL IS THAT WHEN THERE IS NO NEWS - WE GIVE IT TO YOU WITH THE SAME EMPHASIS AS IF THERE WERE." David Brinkley

No kidding...and although the week did start out with little real economic news for talking heads to deliver with drama, the calendar picked up steam in a hurry. Mixed news arrived for both New and Existing Home Sales - and on the heels of the recent strong housing starts and building permits that had the bad-news loving media choking, they attempted to paint a very dismal picture on housing - but it should be taken with a grain of salt. Most closings in March were likely originated in February, which was an incredibly cold month across the US - not the best month to be out home shopping or mucking around construction sites. With spring on the way, there could be some strength in housing in the upcoming months.

This week also brought an interesting report called the Employment Cost Index - one of former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan's favorites - which measures the change in employment costs like wages and benefits. This report showed that costs are increasing, with wages increasing by 3.6% and benefit costs increasing by 3.1% over the past year. So not only are employers having to pay more in salaries due to a tight labor market, but the benefits they are providing to their employees are costing more too.

What's a business owner to do? You got it - consider raising the price of their goods and services to cover the rising costs of their employees...and higher prices means inflation. Not good news for inflation-hating Bond prices and home loan rates, which lost the improvements made earlier in the week and ended unchanged to slightly worse for the week overall.

THE JOB MARKET IS TIGHTENING, AND A COLLEGE EDUCATION IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN EVER - YET 97% OF AMERICAN FAMILIES HAVE NOT PLANNED PROPERLY FOR THEIR CHILD'S COLLEGE FUND. THINK YOU'VE GOT ALL KINDS OF TIME BECAUSE YOUR KIDS ARE YOUNG? WAITING COULD COST YOU...READ THIS WEEK'S MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW FOR A CAUTIONARY TALE OF TWO PARENTS, AND LEARN WHY YOU SHOULD GET STARTED SAVING RIGHT AWAY.

A TALE OF TWO PARENTS...

In today's world, a college education is more important than ever. Many of the jobs that do not require a college degree have been outsourced to workers in other countries, or replaced by a computer or machine. And according to Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, the income disparity between college grads and non-grads is growing every year. In 1979, college grads earned 38% more than those with only a high school diploma - but today, college grads earn 75% more than those without degrees.

But let's face it, college is expensive, and becoming more so every day, inflating at around 5% per year historically. If anything, the cost will continue to rise as the upcoming high school graduating classes are expected to be the largest in history. The demand for four-year colleges will likely increase and with the number of seats in the classrooms still the same, expansion of space will probably not be an option for colleges and universities, but bumping the price tag certainly will be. And the type of college your child attends can have a big effect on the cost too - for just one year of tuition, room and board, an average private college runs just over $30,000, a public out of state college around $19,000, and even a public in state college is close to $13,000.
So as a parent who wants your child to have the chance to attend college - what can you do? Plan early.

Let's look at a tale of two parents to illustrate how important it is to get started right away.

The preschool open house was in full swing, and two parents were chatting over the punchbowl, remarking on how they knew time would fly, and before you know it - their kids would be off to college. Taylor's parents are prepared, having recently sat down with a mortgage professional and learning that to completely fund Taylor's four year education at the local college would cost either $300 per month in savings - or by being able to tap into the equity in their home, only $133 per month after tax. "What a relief to know it's all taken care of!" they commented to Max's parents. But Max's parents replied, "Hey, what's the rush? Look, the kids are only knee-high right now...we'll worry about this later."

Seven years later, the kids are in 5th grade, and the parents meet up again at a birthday party. College comes up in the conversation, as Max's parents just learned that for him to attend the very same college as Taylor, it will now require them to save $835 per month to be ready on time, which is not something they are prepared to do. Taylor's parents recommend that they meet their trusted mortgage professional, who advises them that by using the mortgage wisely, it will only cost them $260 per month after tax. Much easier to swallow - but it's twice as much per month as Taylor's parents, who planned ahead and started earlier.

The moral to this story?

If you want to save for a college education for your child, start the investment early. And encourage your children to invest and save too, with a portion of funds from their allowance or a side job like mowing the neighbors' lawn or babysitting. They will see how the value of their savings grows over time, and most importantly, will help instill the importance and value of a college education to your child. And as the college years approach, explore scholarships, financial aid, or federal direct aid, which is money that does not have to be repaid. When your child is young - you just don't know if they will be a star athlete or straight A student - so always better to plan ahead, and if scholarship money does become available, what a wonderful problem to have more than enough money in savings, due to your good planning.